Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Standard Chartered GDP forecast

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On Tuesday, September 28, 2021, workers work in a swimwear factory in Jinjiang, Fujian Province, southeast China.

Feature China | Barcroft Media | Getty Images

BEIJING-Prior to the release of China’s quarterly growth data on Monday, most major investment banks lowered their economic forecasts for this year and warned that sudden power outages and a downturn in the real estate market could drag down economic growth.

updatednews24 tracked 13 major banks’ forecasts for China’s full-year GDP, and 10 of them have lowered their forecasts since August. After the recent cuts, the average forecast for this year is an increase of 8.2%. This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous median forecast.

Among the companies tracked by updatednews24, Japanese investment bank Nomura Securities has the lowest full-year forecast for China at 7.7%. DBS Bank, the largest bank in Southeast Asia, has the highest percentage at 8.8%.

The following is the bank’s forecast for the whole year:

Banks that lowered China’s GDP forecast


  • ANZ Bank: Decreased from 8.8% to 8.3%
  • Morgan Stanley: Decreased from 8.2% to 7.9%


  • Bank of America: Decreased from 8.3% to 8%
  • Citi: Decreased from 8.7% to 8.2%
  • Deutsche Bank: Decreased from 8.9% to 8.4%
  • Goldman Sachs: Decreased from 8.2% to 7.8%
  • HSBC: Decreased from 8.5% to 8.3%
  • Nomura: Decreased from 8.2% to 7.7%


  • Standard Chartered Bank: Decreased from 8.8% to 8.2%
  • JPMorgan: Decreased from 8.7% to 8.3%

Banks that haven’t changed China’s forecast

  • Credit Suisse: 8.2%.
  • DBS Bank: 8.8%.
  • UBS: 8.2%.

China’s economic structure

The negative factors for growth this year have increased, from lower-than-expected consumer spending to destructive floods. Adding to the uncertainty are Beijing’s extensive regulatory crackdowns, including alleged monopolistic actions against debt-laden real estate developers and Internet technology giants.

Strong export growth is still a bright spot. China’s economic expansion is still expected to exceed the IMF’s 5.9% global growth forecast.

Analysts said that China is taking this opportunity to make painful but necessary adjustments to the economy this year. The official GDP target of over 6% this year is far below the target bet by investment banks.

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