Is this the beginning of the Democratic retirement wave?

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It is when those long-term members who hold important positions in Congress and are usually safe seats in their states start to withdraw, we need to ask if this is the beginning of a broader wave of retirements because they insist on a narrow three-seat majority in the House of Representatives. .

With the recent three retirements in the past few days, 13 members of the Democratic Party now either retire directly or leave their seats to run for other positions in 2022. As of Monday, Republicans had 9 vacant seats.

However, the retirement life of the two parties is not equal. Among the open seats of the Democratic Party, Donald Trump will overtake Joe Biden in 2020 by two (17th in Illinois and 3rd in Wisconsin) and four (13th in Florida, 13th in Florida). Ohio is 13th, Pennsylvania is 17th, and Texas is 34th), in which Biden defeated Trump by 4 points or less.

Therefore, the danger for the Democrats is that other vacillating legislators who swing seats see long-term party supporters like Price, Doyle, and Arms call for their withdrawal and believe that their time has come. .

As Paul Kane of The Washington Post wrote on Sunday:

“Everyone knows that more retirees are coming, and the Democrats currently only hold a majority of three seats. Even in remote competitions, they cannot afford too many vacant seats…

“…From Thanksgiving to Christmas to New Year, the holiday season has traditionally been a time for legislators to check.

“According to data, from 2011 to 2020, the last two months of the rest year and January of the election year prompted members of the House of Representatives to announce their retirement the most. Compiled by Ballotpedia.”

All of this means that the decisions of Doyle and Price-both announced on Monday-are the worst time for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (California) and others, and she is doing her best to bring her core group The number of retirees in China remains low.

Focus: The next few months will be a convincing indicator of how Democrats really feel about their chances of maintaining a small majority in mid-2022. The more Democratic members are bailed out, the more difficult it is to maintain the ship.

Correction: A previous version of this story misreported the number of Democrats who are currently retiring or leaving their seats to run for other positions in 2022. It is 13.


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